Visão Turim

The June edition of the Visão Turim webinar featured Fernando Verboonen (Chief Investment Officer), Thiago Campos (Economist), and Carolina Assis (Head of Illiquid Investments), who discussed the main developments in global markets, with a special focus on illiquid assets and the macroeconomic landscape.

In the illiquid assets universe, Carolina Assis shared recent insights following a series of meetings with Venture Capital managers and her participation in international Private Equity events:

“Particularly in the Venture Capital space, we’re seeing very positive sentiment driven by AI. What’s most impressive is the speed at which these companies are growing — for instance, OpenAI reached US$10 billion in annual revenue, fueled by ChatGPT,” commented Carolina.

In the United States, the advancement of the Reconciliation Package in the House brought to the forefront discussions around expanding tax cuts, increasing defense and border control spending, and the possible introduction of a new tax on foreign investors — nicknamed the “revenge tax.” While the package may offset some of the negative impacts of tariffs on growth, it also raises fiscal risks at a delicate moment.

Additionally, the moderation of tariff policies led to a significant decline in effective tax rate estimates, which contributed to the appreciation of equity markets in May — particularly among the so-called “Magnificent Seven.”

In Brazil, first-quarter GDP showed robust growth, notably driven by the agricultural sector. Other sectors are performing closer to their potential. Inflation has begun to show signs of moderation but remains above the 3% target.

Despite the turbulent political environment, marked by debates over changes to the IOF tax, domestic markets performed positively, especially assets linked to domestic consumption. The small-cap index, for instance, recorded a 5.9% increase for the month.