Visão Turim

The July edition of the Visão Turim webinar featured insights from Henrique Santos (Partner and Portfolio Manager), Lucas Panaro (Head of Liquid Funds), and Julia Mahlmeister Ribeiro (Portfolio Manager), with a focus on macroeconomic updates and the key developments across global and local markets.

In the United States, economic activity remains resilient, accompanied by a gradual disinflation process and a series of consistently benign surprises in major price indices. Despite this, most FOMC members remain cautious in light of the uncertainty generated by the government’s new trade and fiscal policies.

In the markets, the month was marked by a continued recovery in U.S. equities, particularly in technology stocks, which remain buoyed by investor optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.

In Brazil, the economy continues to demonstrate strength, although early signs of moderation are emerging — especially among leading indicators and sectors more sensitive to monetary policy. Inflation has also delivered favorable surprises; however, market expectations still do not foresee convergence to the official inflation target over the relevant time horizon. As such, the Central Bank is expected to maintain the Selic rate at its current level of 15% through next year.

Local assets also continued to perform well. Notably, the exchange rate stood out, with the real posting its strongest monthly appreciation since January. It is worth noting that the U.S. dollar had reached levels close to R$6.30 at the end of last year, and is currently trading around R$5.45.